Iran Launches Cruise Missiles on Its Home Soil

Launching cruise missiles on home soil? Hezbollah of Lebanon as the vanguard? All sides are guessing the answer to Iran's retaliatory actions.

At the end of last month, the leaders of Hezbollah of Lebanon and Hamas were "targeted and eliminated" respectively in Beirut and Tehran. The president of Iran and the leader of Hezbollah of Lebanon stated that they would retaliate and Israel must be punished.

On August 5th, US officials said that they detected missile launcher activities in Iran. A day earlier, Blinken said that Iran and Hezbollah might attack Israel within the next 24 to 48 hours. But on the afternoon of the 5th, senior officials revealed that the intelligence assessment heard by Biden and Harris in the White House Situation Room was rather vague.

The Jerusalem Post of Israel reported that the US intelligence department assessed that Hezbollah of Lebanon and Iran would launch two waves of attacks, but it was unclear who would launch first and in what form. A senior US official said that the counterattacks by Iran and Hezbollah were still being planned. The Biden administration is prepared to defend and exert diplomatic pressure on them.

Borrell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, called for an end to the Gaza war on August 6th, warning that it was pushing the region to the brink of war.

Reuters quoted sources on the 6th as saying that Putin called on Iran to show restraint and avoid a larger-scale conflict, while suggesting not attacking Israeli civilians. A day earlier, Shoigu arrived in Tehran to meet with Iranian officials.

The Alma Research Center of Israel reported that Iran's potential attacks on Israel were expected to include ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, and listed 12 launch sites. On August 5th, the Institute for the Study of War in the US said that the news agency affiliated with the Iranian Armed Forces published a list of potential strike targets in Israel, possibly aiming to weaken its defense and create panic.

US military and intelligence ***ysts believe that there could be two scenarios for Iran's retaliation. One is the use of medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, and the second is missile attacks launched by proxy armed organizations such as Lebanon, shortening Israel's reaction time.

Jonathan Rue, a US expert on Middle East issues, believes that the purpose of the second option is to overwhelm Israel's defense. Politico ***yzed that the US expects regional partners to assist Israel again, but the support may not be as public as in April.

Iranian official media reported that the Foreign Minister of Jordan, Safadi, visited Tehran. Zvika Haimovich, who once served as the commander of the Israeli Air Defense Forces, believes that Hezbollah of Lebanon will play an important role in Iran's retaliatory actions.

Foreign Policy magazine believes that the expansion of the conflict with Hezbollah will pose a major threat to Israel. But David Petraeus, the former director of the Central Intelligence Agency of the US, believes that Iran and Israel will do their best to avoid an all-out war.

There is a fierce debate within the Iranian elite on this matter. The hawks believe that retaliation should be more decisive, the cautious faction calls for a cautious response, and there is also a middle-ground strategy. This incident occurred on the second day of the inauguration of the new president, Pezeshkiyan, and his attitude and influence are of concern.